Friday, September 3, 2010

Will Tiger Own 2011?

The bloggers at the Sand Trap seem to think that Tiger Will Own 2011

I think they are wrong.

Tiger owned 1999 and 2000.  He also owned 2005, 2006 and 2007.  But he will not own 2011.

Tiger Woods will be a better player in 2011 than  in 2010, for sure, but to think that he will come back and win two majors and six tournaments is a stretch.

Why?  For me its less about Tiger than the field.  In 2010 the Pax Romana, er... Pax Tigera?... has been broken.  In 38 Tournaments this year there have already been 34 different winners.

In 42 full field events last year there were only 27 different winners.

In 2008, 41 full field events, 29 winners.

2007:  40 events, 29 winners.

2006: 41 events, 29 winners.

2005: 42 events, 27 winners.

2004: 43 events, 25 winners.

2003: 43 events, 26 winners

See the trend?  Clearly something has changed.

Sure, Tiger's prolonged absence this year has something to do with the fact that there are more winners on tour this year.  But say he was playing, and he had won 5 events already this year.  That would still put 2010 ahead of the pace to buck the trend of about 28 winners per year.

I do believe that Tiger Woods will be back in form in 2011, but I just dont think that he can hold back the masses long enough to rack up another 4-6 wins and 2 more majors.  There are just too many top-caliber players on tour that have what it takes to win PGA events and Majors.

So the question comes then: how do I think Tiger will fare?  I would put my money on 2-3 wins, and a dominant victory at Augusta.  With 3 wins next year I'd bet he ties for the most wins on tour, and with 4 I bet he holds the 2011 title.

Will Tiger own 2011?   No.  But he may still be the majority share holder...


  1. There is no doubt that PGA tour fields are deeper than ever and pretty much any guy in the field can win on any given week. Tiger will play better in 2011. Will he own? 1 Major and 3 regular tour wins is owning. I do not think he will dominate Augusta. I think he will win 3-4 times on tour, 0 majors as he reworks his swing with Sean Foley. 2012 will be a return to major victories (probably multiple) for TW.

  2. Good point JS. For any other man four wins in a season would certainly be considered owning a season. I mean, suppose I told you that J.B. Holmes would win at Torrey, Doral, Firestone, and a Major. That would be ridiculous.

    Correct me if I am wrong (and I may be on this one) but I think Tiger has already done exactly that... twice.

    For Tiger to own a season he needs to go much higher than 4 wins over a year. In fact, excluding 2010, he has matched or eclipsed 4 wins in every season he played on tour except 1996, 1998, and 2004.